Bolters might be stretching it, but lock Isaac Ross and wing
Lelia Masaga shape as the two new faces when Graham Henry on Sunday
names his squad of 26 for the Iveco Series tests against France and
Italy.
Even then this pair may only be in the mix because of injury,
with the uncertain status of Ali Williams (Achilles tendon) and
initial absence of Anthony Boric (broken toe) opening things up in
the second row, and Sitiveni Sivivatu's dislocated shoulder meaning
there's room for a mover and shaker on the wing.
But otherwise don't expect Graham Henry to veer too far from the
tried and trusted when he names his squad at 2pm on Sunday from
Eden Park's Hall of Legends.
All Blacks coaches are notoriously loyal and conservative at the
best of times, but when their squad performed as well as Henry's
did in 2008 (collecting more silverware than a Remuera tea leaf) it
would be a major surprise if there was too much in the way of
change.
Henry will select 12 backs and 14 forwards in his initial squad,
a group that will not include Luke McAlister until it's extended by
a couple for the Tri-Nations campaign. It will also not have Dan
Carter, Boric, Sivivatu, Corey Flynn, and probably Williams and
Brendon Leonard as they all continue to rehabilitate their various
ailments.
Problem areas?
Well, if you want to be a little dramatic, there are certainly
some positions that will be giving Henry and his sidekicks a little
more pause for thought than others.
In no particular order, fourth prop (if they indeed pick four),
wing, second row, backup loosies, an understudy for Richie McCaw
and the cover for Stephen Donald at five-eighth appear to be the
key ponderables.
So, let's cover them off.
Tony Woodcock, Neemia Tialata and John Afoa should be automatic
selections at prop. Afoa hasn't played a lot, but he's now an
experienced campaigner and will be taken on trust, while Tialata's
now trademark inconsistencies with the Canes won't affect his
chances (the All Blacks tend to bring out the best in a man last
year rated by Henry "the world's best tighthead").
So if there's a fourth fatty included - and it's a tossup
between that or an extra loosie - it could be between looseheads
Jamie Mackintosh and Wyatt Crockett, though both of the Franks
brothers from the Crusaders might also be looked at. I'm going with
Mackintosh for two reasons: size matters in test rugby; and having
invested in him on last year's tour it doesn't make sense to cast
him on the scrapheap so soon.
Ad Feedback As an aside, I fully expect Andrew Hore and Keven
Mealamu to be the two hookers picked, but purely on form the
fast-rising Aled de Malmanche must surely be putting pressure on
Mealamu for the backup job. Neither are great throwers, but the
younger Chief is an ox with some big upside.
Locks could be the most interesting area of selection, with Brad
Thorn the only real certainty. On form you would have to give Ross,
who's had an outstanding Super 14 with the Crusaders, one spot and
it's then hard to look past Chief Kevin O'Neill for the other. Ross
is dynamic and athletic and would fill the Williams void nicely,
while O'Neill has presence and has had a solid season so far.
Jeremy Thrush, Craig Clarke and Tom Donnelly might be others in the
mix.
Henry has stated that he will look to select a specialist backup
for McCaw, which is something they didn't do last year. But once
bitten and all that.
I can't help but see Josh Blackie as the ideal man for that
role, but the new Blue had an injury-plagued Super 14 and it seems
will be left to work his way back via the Junior All Blacks. That
leaves Scott Waldrom and Tanerau Latimer as the two leading
contenders, with the Hurricanes forager the frontrunner.
So two opensides leaves three, maybe four, more slots to fill in
the loose forward contingent. Rodney So'oialo will be one of them
(despite a flat Super 14) and Jerome Kaino probably another. Liam
Messam and Adam Thomson are the next two (in that order), with
Keiran Read the unlucky one to miss out. No room for the enigmatic
Sione Lauaki also in a logjam of possibilities.
So to the backs, who pretty much pick themselves.
Injuries have spared the selectors the hard calls at halfback,
and it will likely be that Piri Weepu is also asked to cover for
Stephen Donald at No 10 until McAlister comes into the mix.
The midfield are all automatic selections, with Isaia Toeava the
utility man, fullback also, while wing is probably the only area
for conjecture.
Joe Rokocoko will be one, despite a ragged Super 14, and Masaga
will surely replace Sivivatu for X-factor alone. That leaves Rudi
Wulf, Anthony Tuitavake and maybe Hosea Gear (he's fit, but hasn't
played anything but club rugby of late) going for one spot. I'll
give it to Wulf, but there's a chance the selectors could look at
utilities like Richard Kahui, Toeava and Cory Jane and decide they
have enough cover.
Plenty to think about. For us amateur tipsters anyway. The men
who count will have already decided on their 26 before the
weekend's Super 14 final kicks off in Pretoria less than 12 hours
before their announcement.
In my squad below I've gone for only three props and six
loosies, acknowledging the attrition rate of that position. But
that could go vice-versa depending on the thinking of the three
wise men.
Here's what you need to know about the looming All Blacks
squad:
Certainties: Richie McCaw, Tony Woodcock, Andrew Hore, John
Afoa, Brad Thorn, Rodney So'oialo, Piri Weepu, Jimmy Cowan, Stephen
Donald, Ma'a Nonu, Isaia Toeava, Conrad Smith, Richard Kahui, Joe
Rokocoko, Mils Muliaina.
Probabilities: Neemia Tialata, Keven Mealamu, Kevin
O'Neill, Jerome Kaino, Liam Messam, Scott Waldrom, Lelia Masaga,
Rudi Wulf, Cory Jane,.
Possibilities: Aled de Malmanche, Jamie Mackintosh, Wyatt
Crockett, Isaac Ross, Jeremy Thrush, Adam Thomson, Kieran Read,
Sione Lauaki, Tanerau Latimer, Anthony Tuitavake, Hosea Gear.
Injured, presumed missing: Corey Flynn, Ali Williams,
Anthony Boric, Brendon Leonard, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Dan Carter,
Scott Waldrom.
Likely All Blacks squad: Backs: Mils Muliaina, Cory Jane,
Joe Rokocoko, Lelia Masaga, Rudi Wulf, Richard Kahui, Conrad Smith,
Ma'a Nonu, Isaia Toeava, Stephen Donald, Piri Weepu, Jimmy Cowan.
Forwards: Richie McCaw (capt), Tony Woodcock, Neemia Tialata, John
Afoa, Andrew Hore, Keven Mealamu, Brad Thorn, Kevin O'Neill, Isaac
Ross, Rodney So'oialo, Jerome Kaino, Liam Messam, Adam Thomson,
TBA.
