James Mortimer - allblacks.com - 07/07/2009
The Investec Tri Nations will kick off at Eden Park on July 18th with the All Blacks hosting the Wallabies. It will be the fourteenth edition of the Southern Hemisphere's premier rugby tournament.Current Champions the All Blacks will enter as the IRB’s number one ranked nation, the newest Lion’s victors – the Springboks – will begin as the second best team in the world, with the Robbie Dean’s improving Wallabies ranked third.
Since the IRB commenced rankings in 2003, at least two of the three Southern Hemisphere superpowers have held top three spots coming into the Tri Nations.
So in terms of pure competition and difficulty, the tournament would rank as arguably the most complicated global rugby championship to win.
The All Blacks will look to defend the title and record a seemingly impossible fifth straight Tri Nations trophy and ninth overall. For all the preamble regarding New Zealand never quite fulfilling modern global rugby domination due to their failure to win a World Cup since 1987, their record at Tri Nations level is certainly a positive indicator of their reputation as a rugby power.
The Springboks and Wallabies will look to break long droughts, with the World Champions not winning the title since 2004, and Dean’s men not having tasted success way back in 2001.
Yet, despite the All Blacks recording a 15-5 win loss ratio in the four years that they have held the title, one feels that they are vulnerable to very qualified looking opposition.
The South Africans will enter the 2009 competition on July 5th, after New Zealand and Australia have commenced hostilities in Auckland. They will then host three straight home games to begin the championship, playing the All Blacks twice at Bloemfontein and Durban, before welcoming the Wallabies to Cape Town.
They probably represent the biggest unknown for the tournament.
The current World Champions have just created history, winning their first Lions series since 1980. For many of their players, the just completed tour represented the final frontier for men who will go down as some of the greatest players ever to represent the Rainbow nation.
The big question will be “what next?”, or “what now....?”
If it is “what next”, then the Springboks will represent a formidable challenge to the title, especially if they can clean sweep the opening matches at home.
To win the Tri Nations title this year, would see the last two years of South African rugby firmly cemented in the history books, with the title going into the cabinet with the William Webb Ellis Cup, two Rebel Sport Super 14 titles, and a Lions plaque.
But “what now” could symbolise a feeling within some Springbok elder statesmen that they have achieved it all, and could turn their minds or attention towards the playing fields of Europe or Asia.
Either way, it was not a dominant South Africa that took the Lions series, with the home team challenged by the silky backline and well marshalled co ordination that the Lions brought to the Test series.
For all of their physical intensity, and occasional prowess in areas such as the lineout, tackle and scrum, it was far from a complete performance in any test match from South Africa. But, by the same token, we could argue that man for man, it was the best Lions team seen in some time.
There is still some uncertainty in the Springboks key positions, namely fullback, first five eighth and blindside flanker.
But the strength of South African rugby is that they have some truly world class talent in the form of players such as John Smit, Victor Matfield and Fourie Du Preez. When this is combined with their immense experience, both in terms of matches but in winning championships, they will be a genuine title threat.
However, if a favourite was to be nominated, then it could go to the Wallabies.
They have won four straight at home, posting a half century on a star studded Barbarians side, then clean sweeping the Italians, and beating the French more comfortably that the All Blacks could muster.
The Australian media are gushing superlatives over the side and Robbie Deans.
But it is still too soon to determine whether this Wallabies team can scrape the heights achieved at the turn of the century by Rod McQueen’s world beating side.
With the exception of former Leinster flank and returned flank Rocky Elsom, the Australians have been at full strength, a heady blend of experience, youth, and genuine marquee players.
Captain Stirling Mortlock, first five Matt Giteau and George Smith are the pillars of the side, all easily within the top three players in their respective positions in the world – with the Brumbies fetcher set to bring up a century of test matches at Eden Park.
Old hands like Al Baxter and Nathan Sharpe have been revitalised under the new coaching regime, which appears to have meticulously taken a scalpel to the test team.
But it is the rising young talent that has so many sections of the Australian rugby community excited about the future, with Berrick Barnes, Luke Burgress, Stephen Moore and James Horwill spearheading the next generation of Australian talent.
And clearly, Deans is moulding the team in his own image.
Gone is the blockbusting Australian “inside centre”, replaced by a playmaking second five eighth, seen for so many years in Crusaders and New Zealand teams.
Gone are the structured defensive structures, long modelled on rugby league tackle systems, with the Wallabies now employing a seeming man on man/tackle the man strategy, where, as Deans has often highlighted throughout the years – the Wallabies are directed to play what is in front of them.
The only concern will be that the Australians have not been genuinely tested.
The Barbarians were disappointing, and while Italy was surprisingly competitive, never losing by more than 25 points, they were never going to genuinely threaten the Southern powers.
But the match against France, for all of the Wallabies dominance, was probably not an accurate barometer. Les Bleus made plenty of changes and did not bring the physical and mental edge that was on display against the All Blacks.
To put it simply, the All Blacks and Springboks have had their emotional energy tested confronting critics and history respectively – how the Wallabies will react will opposed with an equal, will only be known in the following weeks.
Certainly, if the Wallabies do not perform well, the Dean’s bubble may burst in Australia.
For the All Blacks, it could be said they enter the championship, despite being current trophy holders, far from being favourites, but perhaps more ominously, as dark horses.
It is difficult to recall a test team so debilitated by injuries, as the All Blacks went into the now completed Iveco home series missing nearly 10 first choice players.
Even now, with Richie McCaw, Rodney So’oialo, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Conrad Smith and Andrew Hore named in the Investec Tri Nations All Blacks squad, they are still missing some genuine artillery.
Ali Williams (achilles), winger Rudi Wulf (shoulder), flanker Adam Thomson (hand), centre Richard Kahui (shoulder), lock Anthony Boric (toe), halfback Andy Ellis (ribs), hooker Corey Flynn (forearm), flanker Scott Waldrom (back) and first-five eighths Daniel Carter (achilles) were all unavailable for selection.
And Stephen Donald and Isaia Toeava, named in the squad, are carrying injury concerns.
But while the re-introduction, especially of talismanic captain McCaw, will no doubt strengthen the All Blacks, there is no doubt they were a disappointing by their usual high standards in the opening three tests of the year.
One only had to hear the comments by the coaches and the players post match against Italy, who they still defeated by 21 points (vs 22 and 23 points by Australia) to understand that the expectations of the All Blacks are not demanded only by their public, but by the men themself.
France, who reserves their best performances for the All Blacks, came hard at New Zealand, and even Italy, who were well organised tactically in Christchurch, disturbed the rhythm of the home side.
It is here that they deserve their dark horse status. After winning 13 of 15 test matches last year, one feels that surely, considering the form of the New Zealand teams in the Rebel Sport Super 14 this year; that the somewhat mediocre performances put together by the most inexperienced All Black team in the professional era, will be arrested come the Tri Nations.
And of course, there are the benefits, with coach Graham Henry forced to blood numerous players to the test arena, and the reality check of an early speed bump, as the All Blacks went through last year in the opening matches of the Tri Nations.
If a barometer of performance is assessed on how much a team could improve, then surely the All Blacks would enter the 2009 championship as leading contenders. But it looks to be the most open Investec Tri Nations ever, with the All Blacks facing a torrid time to maintain their grip on the title.
Tri Nations roll of honour
1996 - New Zealand
1997 - New Zealand
1998 - South Africa
1999 - New Zealand
2000 - Australia
2001 - Australia
2002 - New Zealand
2003 - New Zealand
2004 - South Africa
2005 - New Zealand
2006 - New Zealand
2007 - New Zealand
2008 - New Zealand
All Blacks Investec Tri Nations squad
Backs: Mils Muliaina, Cory Jane, Joe Rokocoko, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Hosea Gear, Isaia Toeava, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Luke McAlister, Stephen Donald, Piri Weepu, Jimmy Cowan, Brendon Leonard
Forwards: Rodney So'oialo, Richie McCaw (captain), Tanerau Latimer, Kieran Read, Jerome Kaino, Jason Eaton, Isaac Ross, Bryn Evans, Brad Thorn, John Afoa, Neemia Tialata, Owen Franks, Tony Woodcock, Wyatt Crockett, Andrew Hore, Keven Mealamu, Aled de Malmanche.
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