Underestimate the All Blacks at your own peril

Coach Graham Henry has named his first squad of the year, notable more for the omissions rather than the squad itself.

Well over 200 test caps are absent, a swathe of players who are considered – on their best form – among World XV quality players.

All Blacks captain Richie McCaw; his stand in captain last year, Rodney So’oialo; Sitiveni Sivivatu, probably the Super 14’s form winger; and Dan Carter, who finished last year as the best first five eighth in world rugby.

So despite a standout 2008 Test season, the All Black’s still continue to rebuild after losing a massive number of first choice and fringe Test players between the end of the most recent World Cup and the middle of last year such as Carl Hayman, Anton Oliver, Chris Jack, Keith Robinson, Marty Holah, Jerry Collins, Chris Masoe, Moses Tuiali’i, Byron Kelleher, Nick Evans, Aaron Mauger, Luke McAlister and Doug Howlett.

So would the All Blacks be prepared to effectively concede the home series, Bledisloe and Tri Nations, as they wait out the absence of key players - to break their trend of their traditional period of “mid World Cup” dominance in view of the 2011 tournament, especially when considering the strength of Springbok rugby, and the apparent rising force of Robbie Deans Wallabies?

Not at all.

This is against the ethos of New Zealand rugby, a code that demands consistent success.

But think of the following players, who injury permitting, will be likely back in black by the end of the year: Richie McCaw (70 tests), Dan Carter (59 tests), Sitiveni Sivivatu (34 tests), Luke McAlister (22 tests), Rodney So’oialo (55 tests) and Chris Jack (67 tests).

That is 307 test caps.

Add that to the current named team, give or take a few matches, and that is a squad of over 850 Test match appearances, with the average age of 28-29 years.

Far beyond any other side in the world.

That would allow the New Zealand Test team to approach the next World Cup with the same foundation that Australia, England and South Africa had in their most recent William Webb Ellis triumphs - oerwhelming experience.

But for now the All Blacks look set to welcome Les Bleus and the Azzuri. The French were the last team to defeat New Zealand twice in consecutive matches at home.

To put this into perspective, since that series was held in 1994, the All Blacks have lost only six times in New Zealand. That almost averages to just one loss every three years in their backyard.

The Tricolours will mount a formidable challenge, though, with only players from Clermont and Perpignan being absent from the first Test in Dunedin on June 13th.

Equally Italy, while they are essentially no chance of downing the All Blacks at home, will provide a welcome challenge to the home team’s forward structures.

But it will be the Tri Nations that will have the most intrigue.

Numerous “experts” are already talking up the Springboks to a huge degree, basing a large amount of this conjecture on the Bulls‘ Super 14 win over the Chiefs.

But only once has a non-New Zealand team taken their Super rugby form to Tri Nation’s success - the Brumbies in 2001 - whereas the Blues’ three Super rugby wins led to New Zealand Tri Nations titles and five of the Crusaders wins led to the same.

Form aside, the Springboks or Wallabies will have to conquer history to wrest the Tri Nations title out of the All Blacks hands.

Since 1996, the All Blacks have won nine titles and lost only four, and currently sit on a four year title streak, the longest in its short history. They have won 39 matches and lost only 17.

Their two opponents have lost nearly twice that number, and between them have won only 44 games.

There is popular conjecture that the All Blacks have arguably the weakest team of all the Tri Nations teams this year.

But isn’t that what was said in 2008?

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